Identification_Information: Citation: Citation_Information: Originator: Ironside, K. E. Originator: Ellis, A. W. Originator: Peters, M. Originator: Eischeid, J. K. Publication_Date: 2008 Title: Mpi_echam5 Predicted 21st Century Decadal Precipitation minus Potential Evapotranspiration for the Western Conterminous United States Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: raster digital data Series_Information: Series_Name: Average Decadal Precipitation - Potential Evapotranspiration for the Conterminous United States Over the 21st Century Publication_Information: Publication_Place: Flagstaff, AZ Publisher: Merriam-Powell Center for Environmental Research Other_Citation_Details: Dataset naming convention: e_2005_2014_1 = Average P-PE from 2005 to 12014 for January Online_Linkage: \\Grail1\Climate_Data\AR4_A1B\mpi_echam5\p_pe\decadal\e2005_2014_1 Description: Abstract: Decadal water balance, in the form of average monthly total precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration (P-PE), was calculated using the Mpi_echam5 General Circulation Model (GCM) results developed by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology and contributed to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report. Potential evapotranspiration was calculated using the Hamon Method by the Merriam-Powell Center for Environmental Research (MPCER). Starting in 2005 AD decadal average P-PE for each month of the year was calculated up till 2094 AD. The GCM results have been downscaled to the scale of the PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model, http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu/index.phtml) dataset, approximately 4 km, for the western half of the conterminous United States (west of the 100th meridian). Purpose: This series of datasets was created for predicting potential changes in suitable climates for various plant species. P-PE has been found to be a useful predictor of general suitable climate for some species, and also a predictor of suitable climate for seedling recruitment and establishment as well as a predictor of drought induced mortality. Supplemental_Information: ArcGIS v. 9.2 model builder was used to develop a tool for calculating P-PE and the input of average monthly day length. These tools are available for download at http://www4.nau.edu/direnet/methods/index.html. This research was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science (BER) through the Western Regional Center of the National Institute for Climatic Change Research. Time_Period_of_Content: Time_Period_Information: Single_Date/Time: Calendar_Date: 20081201 Currentness_Reference: publication date Status: Progress: Complete Maintenance_and_Update_Frequency: None planned Spatial_Domain: Bounding_Coordinates: West_Bounding_Coordinate: -125.020833 East_Bounding_Coordinate: -99.978966 North_Bounding_Coordinate: 49.937707 South_Bounding_Coordinate: 24.062500 Keywords: Theme: Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus: none Theme_Keyword: Water Balance Theme_Keyword: Moisture Surplus Theme_Keyword: Moisture Deficit Theme_Keyword: Potential Evapotranspiration Theme_Keyword: Mpi_echam5 Theme_Keyword: General Circulation Model results Theme: Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus: ISO Theme Categories Theme_Keyword: climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere Place: Place_Keyword_Thesaurus: none Place_Keyword: Western United States Temporal: Temporal_Keyword_Thesaurus: none Temporal_Keyword: Decadal Temporal_Keyword: 21st Century Access_Constraints: none Use_Constraints: These data were compiled for MPCER use and represent the results of data collection/processing for a specific MPCER activity/project. MPCER makes no representation as to the suitability or accuracy of these data for any other purpose and disclaims any liability for errors that the data may contain. As such, it is only valid for its intended use, content, time, and accuracy specifications. While there are no explicit constraints on the use of these data, please exercise appropriate and professional judgment in the use and interpretation of these data. Acknowledgement of the originating agencies would be appreciated in products derived from these data. Point_of_Contact: Contact_Information: Contact_Organization_Primary: Contact_Organization: Merriam-Powell Center for Environmental Research Contact_Person: Kirsten E. Ironside Contact_Position: GIS Specialist Contact_Address: Address_Type: mailing address Address: Merriam-Powell Center for Environmental Research Address: Northern Arizona University Address: P.O. Box 4071 City: Flagstaff State_or_Province: AZ Postal_Code: 86011 Country: United States Contact_Address: Address_Type: physical address Address: Northern Arizona University Address: Building 22, Room 330 City: Flagstaff State_or_Province: AZ Postal_Code: 86011 Country: USA Contact_Voice_Telephone: (928) 523-6221 Contact_Facsimile_Telephone: (928) 523-8223 Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address: MPCER.GIS@nau.edu Hours_of_Service: 9 am - 5 pm Standard Time Data_Set_Credit: Merriam-Powell Center for Environmental Research Native_Data_Set_Environment: Microsoft Windows XP Version 5.1 (Build 2600) Service Pack 3; ESRI ArcCatalog 9.2.6.1500 Data_Quality_Information: Attribute_Accuracy: Attribute_Accuracy_Report: No accuracy assessment was conducted. Logical_Consistency_Report: No logical consistency reporting was done for these datasets. Completeness_Report: No completeness reporting was done for these datasets. Positional_Accuracy: Horizontal_Positional_Accuracy: Horizontal_Positional_Accuracy_Report: No positional accuracy was assessed. Dataset was developed using the original coordinate system of the PRISM dataset used to calculate P-PE. Vertical_Positional_Accuracy: Vertical_Positional_Accuracy_Report: NA Lineage: Source_Information: Source_Citation: Citation_Information: Originator: Salathe, E.P., Jr., Publication_Date: 2005 Title: Downscaling simulations of future global climate with application to hydrologic modeling Series_Information: Issue_Identification: 25 Publication_Information: Publisher: International Journal of Climatology Type_of_Source_Media: paper Source_Time_Period_of_Content: Time_Period_Information: Single_Date/Time: Calendar_Date: 2005 Source_Currentness_Reference: publication date Source_Citation_Abbreviation: Salathe, E.P., Jr., 2005. Downscaling simulations of future global climate with application to hydrologic modeling. International Journal of Climatology 25: 419-436. Source_Contribution: Methods used to downscale GCM predictions to a 4 km scale using 1950-2000 averaged 4 km PRISM datasets for correction factors. Source_Information: Source_Citation: Citation_Information: Originator: Hamon, W. R. Publication_Date: 1961 Title: Estimating potential evapotranspiration. Series_Information: Issue_Identification: 871 Publication_Information: Publisher: Proc Am Soc Civ Eng Type_of_Source_Media: physical model Source_Time_Period_of_Content: Time_Period_Information: Single_Date/Time: Calendar_Date: 1961 Source_Currentness_Reference: publication date Source_Citation_Abbreviation: Hamon WR (1961) Estimating potential evapotranspiration. Proc Am Soc Civ Eng 871:107-120 Source_Contribution: Methods for calculating potential evapotranspiration. Source_Information: Source_Citation: Citation_Information: Originator: Wolock, D. M. Originator: McCabe, G. J. Publication_Date: 1999 Title: Explaining spatial variability in mean annual runoff in the coterminous United States Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: model Series_Information: Issue_Identification: 11 Publication_Information: Publisher: Climate Research Type_of_Source_Media: paper Source_Time_Period_of_Content: Time_Period_Information: Single_Date/Time: Calendar_Date: 1999 Source_Currentness_Reference: publication date Source_Citation_Abbreviation: Wolock DM, McCabe GJ (1999) Explaining spatial variability in mean annual runoff in the coterminous United States. Clim Res 11:149-159. Source_Contribution: Methods for calculating potential evapotranspiration and accuracy assessment of methods. Source_Information: Source_Citation: Citation_Information: Originator: Ellis, A. W. Originator: Hawkins, T. W. Originator: Balling Jr., R. C. Originator: Gober, P. Publication_Date: 2008 Title: Estimating future runoff levels for a semi-arid fluvial system in central Arizona, USA Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: model Series_Information: Issue_Identification: 35 Publication_Information: Publisher: Climate Research Type_of_Source_Media: physical model Source_Time_Period_of_Content: Time_Period_Information: Single_Date/Time: Calendar_Date: 2008 Source_Currentness_Reference: publication date Source_Citation_Abbreviation: Ellis, A. W., T. W. Hawkins, R. C. Balling Jr., and P.. Gober. 2008. Estimating future runoff levels for a semi-arid fluvial system in central Arizona, USA. Climate Research 35: 227-239. Source_Contribution: Methods for calculating potential evapotranspiration and accuracy assessment of methods. Source_Information: Source_Citation: Citation_Information: Originator: Chris Daly Originator: Wayne Gibson Originator: Matthew Doggett Originator: Joeseph Smith Originator: George Taylor Publication_Date: Updated Monthly Title: Near-Real-Time Monthly High-Resolution Precipitation Climate Data Set for the Conterminous United States Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: raster digital data Publication_Information: Publication_Place: Corvallis, Oregon, USA Publisher: Spatial Climate Analysis Service, Oregon State University Type_of_Source_Media: Input Data Source_Time_Period_of_Content: Time_Period_Information: Multiple_Dates/Times: Single_Date/Time: Calendar_Date: unknown Source_Currentness_Reference: publication date Source_Citation_Abbreviation: Chris Daly, Wayne Gibson, Matthew Doggett, Joeseph Smith, and George Taylor. Updated Monthly. Near-Real-Time Monthly High-Resolution Precipitation Climate Data Set for the Conterminous United States. raster digital data. Spatial Climate Analysis Service, Oregon State University. Corvallis, Oregon, USA Source_Contribution: Data for calculating downscaling correction factors. Source_Information: Source_Citation: Citation_Information: Originator: Chris Daly Originator: Wayne Gibson Originator: Matthew Doggett Originator: Joeseph Smith Originator: George Taylor Publication_Date: Updated Monthly Title: Near-Real-Time High-Resolution Monthly Average Maximum/Minimum Temperature for the Conterminous United States Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: raster digital data Publication_Information: Publication_Place: Corvallis, Oregon, USA Publisher: Spatial Climate Analysis Service, Oregon State University Type_of_Source_Media: Input Data Source_Time_Period_of_Content: Time_Period_Information: Multiple_Dates/Times: Single_Date/Time: Calendar_Date: unknown Source_Currentness_Reference: publication date Source_Citation_Abbreviation: Chris Daly, Wayne Gibson, Matthew Doggett, Joeseph Smith, and George Taylor. Updated Monthly. Near-Real-Time High-Resolution Monthly Average Maximum/Minimum Temperature for the Conterminous United States. raster digital data. Spatial Climate Analysis Service, Oregon State University. Corvallis, Oregon, USA Source_Contribution: Data for calculating downscaling correction factors. Process_Step: Process_Description: 1. Mpi_echam5 monthly total precipitation, and mean temperature were obtained from the PCMDI archive (http://wwwpcmdi. llnl.gov/ipcc/about ipcc.php) for the SRES A1B emission scenario. Details on the models and their configurations are available at http://wwwpcmdi. llnl.gov/ipcc/about ipcc.php. The A1B scenario, sometimes referred to as "the medium non-mitigation scenario" describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, with global population that peaks in mid-century then declines, and rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies that are balanced such that no single source of energy is overly dominant. Process_Date: 20080801 Process_Step: Process_Description: 2. We used mean monthly temperature and monthly total precipitation data from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) 4 km grid cell resolution dataset (www.prism.oregonstate.edu). PRISM uses point data, spatial data sets, a knowledge base, and expert interaction to generate estimates of gridded monthly climatic parameters. A combination of linear regression and a series of rules, decisions and calculations set weights for the station data entering the linear regression. The weighting function contains information about relationships between the climate field and geographic or meteorological factors. Weighting factors include measures such as distance from the predict and location, elevation, station clustering, vertical layer (to account for local inversions), topographic facet (to account for rain shadows), coastal proximity, and effective terrain weights. We used PRISM estimates for the period 1895-2000, with 1950-1999 as an climatological average period for calculating anomalies. Process_Date: 20080801 Process_Step: Process_Description: 3. Inverse distance weighting was used to re-grid the Mpi_echam5 precipitation and temperature output. Once the GCM estimates for each parameter have been re-gridded, we statistically downscaled the GCM estimates to the 4 km grid resolution, using the method described by Salathé (2005). This removes the bias between the large-scale simulated climate parameter and the observed climate parameter at each grid cell. These biases are presumed to be the same from year to year, because at the monthly time scale the models can resolve the large-scale weather systems that generate observed temperature and precipitation. The downscaling method takes the monthly temporal variability from the GCM simulation and uses the PRISM estimates to impose the spatial structure; thus, the downscaling method takes into account the atmospheric processes driving the simulated precipitation and temperature. Total monthly precipitation and mean monthly temperature were averaged across the following decades: 2005-2014, 2015-2024, 2025-2034, 2035-2044, 2045-2054, 2055-2064, 2065-2074, 2075-2084, 2085-2094. Process_Date: 20080801 Process_Step: Process_Description: 4. An ArcGIS tool created using model builder version 9.2 was developed after FORTRAN code developed by Andrew Ellis to calculate P-PE using the Hamon Method. This tool was run using the downscaled Mpi_echam5 decadal data as inputs and a monthly average day length grid to produce the P-PE ESRI GRIDs. Process_Date: 20080801 Process_Contact: Contact_Information: Contact_Person_Primary: Contact_Person: Kirsten E. Ironside Contact_Organization: Merriam-Powell Center for Environmental Research Contact_Position: GIS Specialist Contact_Address: Address_Type: mailing address Address: Merriam-Powell Center for Environmental Research Address: Northern Arizona University Address: P.O. Box 4071 City: Flagstaff State_or_Province: AZ Postal_Code: 86011 Country: USA Contact_Voice_Telephone: (928) 523-0861 Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address: Kirsten.Ironside@nau.edu Spatial_Data_Organization_Information: Direct_Spatial_Reference_Method: Raster Point_and_Vector_Object_Information: Raster_Object_Information: Raster_Object_Type: Grid Cell Row_Count: 621 Column_Count: 601 Vertical_Count: 1 Spatial_Reference_Information: Horizontal_Coordinate_System_Definition: Geographic: Latitude_Resolution: 0.000000 Longitude_Resolution: 0.000000 Geographic_Coordinate_Units: Decimal degrees Planar: Planar_Coordinate_Information: Planar_Coordinate_Encoding_Method: row and column Coordinate_Representation: Abscissa_Resolution: 0.041667 Ordinate_Resolution: 0.041667 Geodetic_Model: Horizontal_Datum_Name: D_WGS_1972 Ellipsoid_Name: WGS_1972 Semi-major_Axis: 6378135.000000 Denominator_of_Flattening_Ratio: 298.260000 Entity_and_Attribute_Information: Detailed_Description: Entity_Type: Entity_Type_Label: Precipitation - Potential Evapotranspiration Entity_Type_Definition: millimeters of water Entity_Type_Definition_Source: user defined Attribute: Attribute_Definition: P-PE in millimeters Attribute_Definition_Source: user defined Beginning_Date_of_Attribute_Values: 1905 Ending_Date_of_Attribute_Values: 2004 Attribute_Value_Accuracy_Information: Attribute_Value_Accuracy: unknown Distribution_Information: Distributor: Contact_Information: Contact_Organization_Primary: Contact_Organization: Merriam-Powell Center for Environmental Research Contact_Person: Kirsten E. Ironside Contact_Position: GIS Specialist Contact_Address: Address_Type: mailing address Address: Merriam-Powell Center for Environmental Research Address: Northern Arizona University Address: P.O. Box 4071 City: Flagstaff State_or_Province: AZ Postal_Code: 86011 Country: USA Contact_Voice_Telephone: (928) 523-0861 Contact_TDD/TTY_Telephone: (928) 523-0861 Resource_Description: Downloadable Data Distribution_Liability: Although these data have been processed successfully on a computer system at the Merriam-Powell Center for Environmental Research, no warranty expressed or implied is made regarding the accuracy or utility of these data on any other system or for general or scientific purposes, nor shall the act of distribution constitute any warranty. This disclaimer applies both to individual use of these data and aggregate use with other data. It is strongly recommended that these data be directly acquired from the MPCER Project website, and not indirectly through other sources that may have changed these data in some way. It is also strongly recommended that careful attention be paid to the contents of the metadata file associated with these data. MPCER shall not be held liable for improper or incorrect use of these data described and/or contained herein. Standard_Order_Process: Digital_Form: Digital_Transfer_Information: Format_Name: ESRI GRID Transfer_Size: 2.469 Digital_Transfer_Option: Online_Option: Computer_Contact_Information: Network_Address: Network_Resource_Name: http://www4.nau.edu/direnet/methods/index.html Fees: none Ordering_Instructions: Available for download at http://www4.nau.edu/direnet/methods/index.html Turnaround: NA Custom_Order_Process: none Technical_Prerequisites: ESRI ArcGIS software Metadata_Reference_Information: Metadata_Date: 20081217 Metadata_Contact: Contact_Information: Contact_Organization_Primary: Contact_Organization: Merriam-Powell Center for Environmental Research Contact_Person: Kirsten E. Ironside Contact_Position: GIS Specialist Contact_Address: Address_Type: mailing address Address: Merriam-Powell Center for Environmental Research Address: Northern Arizona University Address: P.O. Box 4071 City: Flagstaff State_or_Province: AZ Postal_Code: 86011 Country: USA Contact_Address: Address_Type: physical address Address: Northern Arizona University Address: Building 22, Room 330 City: Flagstaff State_or_Province: AZ Postal_Code: 86011 Country: USA Contact_Voice_Telephone: 928-523-6221 Contact_Facsimile_Telephone: (928) 523-8223 Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address: MPCER.GIS@nau.edu Metadata_Standard_Name: FGDC Content Standards for Digital Geospatial Metadata Metadata_Standard_Version: FGDC-STD-001-1998 Metadata_Time_Convention: local time Metadata_Access_Constraints: none Metadata_Use_Constraints: none Metadata_Extensions: Online_Linkage: http://www.esri.com/metadata/esriprof80.html Profile_Name: ESRI Metadata Profile