This map shows potential future suitable climate for a specific species using the CNRM-CM3 model and the SRES A1B future climate scenario. The time periods modeled are the present, 2010-20-39, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099. The mapped parameter is the probibility of occurance for the species represented.
Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques. 2004. CNRM-CM3. Météo France, France.
Model Strengths when modeling climate for the Southwestern United States
- Preserves spatial structure of seasonal precipitation across the West
- Exhibits seasonal average temperature near the observed average in Summer
- Shows bimodal seasonal precipitation cycle
- Closely matches observed June precipitation
- Comes closest to simulating observed monthly means for each summer month
Model Constraints when modeling climate for the Southwestern United States
- Exhibits cooler than observed average temperatures during Fall, Winter and Spring
- Overestimates November-March, as well as April and September precipitation
- Exaggerates winter wetness
- Estimates wetter than observed summer precipitation in the Upper Colorado River Basin
See Garfin et al 2010 for a detailed discussion of these models and the selection methodology.
