This map shows potential future suitable climate for a specific species using the CSIRO1 model and the SRES A1B future climate scenario. The time periods modeled are the present, 2010-20-39, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099. The mapped parameter is the probibility of occurance for the species represented.
CSIRO-Mk3.0 Model Specification
Gordon, H. B., Rotstayn, L. D., McGregor, J. L., Dix, M. R., Kowalczyk, E. A., O'Farrell, S. P., Waterman, L. J., Hirst, A. C., Wilson, S. G., Collier, M. A., Watterson, I. G., and Elliott, T. I. (2002): The CSIRO Mk3 Climate System Model [Electronic publication]. Aspendale: CSIRO Atmospheric Research. (CSIRO Atmospheric Research technical paper; no. 60). 130 pp.
Model Strengths when modeling climate for the Southwestern United States
- Preserves spatial structure of seasonal precipitation across the West
- Exhibits seasonal average temperature near the observed average in Summer
Model Constraints when modeling climate for the Southwestern United States
- Exhibits cooler than observed average temperatures during Fall, Winter and Spring
- Does not estimate pre-monsoon (May-June) precipitation well
- Does not exhibit bimodal sesonal precipitation
- Depicts much wetter than observed conditions for November-March and Spring (> 2x observed)
- Produces double the observed Summer precipition in the eastern half of the Southern Colorado Plateau
See Garfin et al 2010 for a detailed discussion of these models and the selection methodology.
