Basic:
Agriculture
In today's global food market, only three varieties of cereal grains—maize, wheat, and rice—
account for about 90% of the world's grain production1 and nearly half of all food calories
consumed each year.2 These staple grains feed billions of people daily. Yet to grow productively,
they rely on specific environmental conditions. By limiting food-crop biodiversity to just three
varieties of grain, the world's food supply is at risk as temperatures warm and extreme weather
events, such as heat waves, intense storms, and droughts, threaten to wipe out entire harvests.
Returning to indigenous farming methods and encouraging local food production could mitigate
these risks to the world’s food supply while increasing food-crop biodiversity, meaning
consumers have access to a greater variety of produce with a smaller environmental impact.3
Agriculture is highly sensitive to weather events (daily atmospheric conditions, including
temperature and precipitation). Even small environmental changes can have serious
consequences for crop productivity, especially in areas where plants are already near their
temperature thresholds. Yet, while the effects of climate change will almost certainly touch all
regions of the world, not everyone will share equally in its hardships.
In seasonally dry, low-latitude areas where most of the world's poor live, small temperature
increases can devastate annual crop and pasture yields.4 Research suggests that agricultural
productivity in Pakistan could decrease by 8%-10% by 2040, a country where 58% of the
population is already food insecure.5 A recent study of South Africa predicts that annual crop
revenues could drop as much as 47% by 2100, with small scale farmers most severely
affected.6 Developing nations are the most limited in their ability to adapt to rapid changes in
climate as well as extreme weather events such as droughts, intense storms, and heat waves
In parts of North America and Siberia, however, farmers are hailing climate change as "good
news" for crop productivity.7 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports
that temperature increases and higher levels of atmospheric CO2 will likely increase crop and
pasture yields to a moderate degree, at least in the short-term in those regions. Weather
changes could extend the growing season, and cropland will likely expand northward as the
climate warms. Yet, as the CO2 threshold of plants is exceeded and temperatures continue to
rise, productivity may begin to slow.8
Despite these mixed assessments of crop impacts, rising temperatures could create serious
general problems for the world's agricultural sector. One ominous threat of climate change lies
in extreme weather events. Drought conditions often lead to wildfires, and intense storms can
cause devastating floods. Rising sea levels in coastal areas will make the soil and groundwater
more alkaline, further stressing crops that are already struggling.9
Further, as winters and springs become warmer, insects can live longer and expand the range in
which they live.10 Pest infestations create stresses on trees and crops, causing direct damage,
increasing the susceptibility of plants to disease, and creating conditions that allow invasive
species to thrive and indigenous "weeds" to expand. Some studies show that many types of
weeds can adapt readily to climate shifts.11 This ability could enhance their ability to outcompete
crops for resources like minerals and moisture, diminishing yields. However, despite
their negative impacts on agriculture, weeds sequester carbon and provide ground cover,
reducing erosion and improving soil health. Allowing weeds to grow alongside certain crops can
improve plant health and provide nutrients in a more natural manner when compared to
artificial fertilizers.
Along with temperature change, crops are most affected by changes in precipitation. Changing
global weather patterns could make some areas wetter, while throwing other areas into
drought conditions.12 Farmers could be forced to abandon traditional crops to cultivate heat
and drought tolerant varieties. In other areas, farmers are forced to cultivate species able to
withstand flood conditions. Genetically Modified crops, commonly known as GMOs, are being
utilized to reduce agricultural emissions, and to maintain crop yields as temperature and
weather changes.13
While GMOs hold the potential to grow climate resilient crops, there are a variety of concerns
associated with their production and consumption. GMOs are patented under “novel
inventions” in the United States. The patent is given to GMOs to entice investors and to ensure
exclusivity of the plant.14 While the patents benefit companies producing GMOs, farmers
growing GMOs are subject to pay licensing fees and must give the company they bought the
seeds from the right to inspect their farm at will to ensure that the crops are being grown in a
manner the company sees fit. These patents also make it difficult to research GMOs, as
researchers must have a license, ultimately restricting the research available on GMOs.15 The
lack of accessibility on independent, unbiased research concerning GMOs could result in
unintended future environmental or health consequences. Preliminary studies conducted on
the effects of GMOs on human health have identified potential risks of allergic reactions,
antibiotic resistance, cancer, and other health conditions.16
As climate changes and farmers seek crop varieties that are more resistant to weather
extremes, returning to Indigenous varieties may be the key to not only harvest resilience, but
also to regaining food sovereignty. In Leupp, Arizona, on the Navajo Nation, Ch’ishie Farms
utilizes indigenous crop varieties, hoop houses, and farming methods that differ from
traditional monocropping to harvest fresh produce in the high desert. Ch’ishie Farms
demonstrates what is possible when indigenous crops and growing methods are utilized, and
how locally growing food can increase the resiliency of a community by providing healthy food
options to Diné people in and around Leupp.17 Combatting food deserts and re-introducing
nutritious, fresh food into communities around the globe can start with growing it together.
Food sovereignty can increase climate resilience. By giving growing power back to farmers,
fishers, and indigenous peoples, major shifts in the current agricultural system would occur.
These shifts would emphasize environmental stewardship, equitable distribution of resources,
fair labor practices, and land ownership.18 Emissions associated with agriculture would
decrease, along with water and pesticide use, and soil health would be improved. Emphasizing
the importance of food sovereignty is essential for ensuring that agricultural practices are
beneficial to the planet.
Overall, crops depend on "weather" rather than "climate." Scientists agree that climate change
can cause extreme daily variations, which could have profound consequences for the world's
food supply. The impacts of climate change on food production will depend not only on
environmental conditions but on farmers' ability and willingness to utilize new technologies and
farming methods and cultivate different crops to adapt to shifting crop ranges and to meet the
world's changing food demands.19 Small subsistence farmers with the poorest ability to adapt
are most vulnerable to the growing impacts of climate change, facing threats to both their
livelihoods and the cultural ties they have to the earth through agriculture.